Probabilistic load flow techniques applied to power system expansion planning

An application of the probabilistic load flow (PLF) techniques to the expansion planning of power systems is presented. A brief review of the PLF formulation and solution is included to identify differences between this technique and other available tools such as composite generation and transmission reliability evaluation algorithms. The potential of the PLF technique is demonstrated by a case study using the Brazilian North/Northeastern system. The network expansion planning of an area of this system is studied using a conventional load flow program and the results are compared with those obtained from a PLF program that models generation capacity unavailabilities and peak load uncertainties. The significant differences demonstrate the benefits of the PLF technique. Special emphasis is given to short-term and long-term modeling using analyses of real system load data