Modeling China´s forest resources and timber supply

A forest resources and timber supply model with variables including forest stock volume, timber harvest volume and forest area was established. The regression results of the model indicate that China´s plantation accelerates the growth rate of forest stock volume while forest tenure reform has negative effect on that; additionally, there has a positive correlation between timber supply and GDP, yet timber price has no significant effect on timber supply. By use of this model, China´s forest resources and timber supply trend is predicted. The forecast results show that China´s forest stock volume would increase about 380 million m3 and timber supply would increase by 3.5% annually over 2009-2020. Overall, although China´s timber supply would maintain an increasing trend, China will still face the problem of structural imbalances and will continue to rely on import on aspects of large-diameter timber.