Stability of urban spatial system: From theory to modeling

Nowadays, urban spatial structure is in a period of rapid adjustment. This phenomenon has a profound impact on urban economy. This paper bases study on the New Economic Geography and urban economics theories, after structuring the conceptual model of urban spatial system in a mono-centric metropolitan region, using simulation to realize the basic operation of this adaptive system, and evaluating of the spatial impact of small changes in key variables. The results verify the conclusions gotten from the theory analysis, which are supply and demand of urban goods, transaction costs, and other changes in individual behavior determine urban spatial system operation, and basically, there are the optimal time and location when and where to generate New Towns within a city. This implies that the New Town planning must be carried out after an objective analysis on urban spatial system and its development law. This study also confirmed the sensitivity analysis is applicable for urban science.