Track quality prediction based on center approach Markov-Grey GM(1,1) model

Author

Feng Liu ; Xiukun Wei ; Yan Liu ; Xianxian Yin

Author_Institution

State Key Lab. of Rail Traffic Control & Safety, Beijing Jiao Tong Univ., Beijing, China

fYear

2014

fDate

28-30 July 2014

Firstpage

81

Lastpage

86

Abstract

The prediction of the track quality (TQI) is paid much more attention than ever before since the steel track is directly related to the safety and the comfort of the railway vehicles. In this paper, a method so called Markov-Grey GM(1,1) model is applied for predicting the TQI. The result of the comparison between this new method and the traditional grey prediction theory shows that the precision of the Markov-Grey GM(1,1) model is superior to the traditional method. The proposed method in this paper provides an alternative for the track quality prediction for the cost effective track maintenance.

Keywords

Markov processes; ergonomics; grey systems; railway safety; TQI prediction; center approach Markov-grey GM(1,1) Model; cost effective track maintenance; grey prediction theory; railway vehicle comfort; railway vehicle safety; steel track; track quality prediction; Data models; Market research; Markov processes; Mathematical model; Predictive models; Probability; Rail transportation; 1) model; Center approach grey GM(1; Markov chain model; TQI; Track irregularity;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Information and Automation (ICIA), 2014 IEEE International Conference on

Conference_Location

Hailar

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/ICInfA.2014.6932630

Filename

6932630