The effectiveness of persuasion in The Settlers of Catan

We present a method for obtaining a useful symbolic model of persuasion in a complex game, where players´ preferences over the outcomes of negotiations over resources are incomplete, uncertain, and dynamic. We focus on the problem of identifying the stage in the game where successfully persuading an agent to perform a particular action will have the most impact on one´s chances to win. Our approach exploits empirical data from game simulations, where the set up allows us to investigate individual aspects of the policy in suitably controlled ways. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach within the domain of The Settlers of Catan and present some specific lessons that can be learned for this particular game, e.g. that a tipping point in the game occurs for persuasion moves that are made when the leading player reaches 7 Victory Points.