Bayesian Confidence Limits For The Availability of Systems

This paper presents a numerical procedure for computing Bayes confidence intervals for the availability of a series or parallel system consisting of several statistically independent 2-state subsystems each having exponential distributions of life and repair time. The present results 1) provide a useful generalization of a previous result in which test data were limited to ``snap-shot´´ observations on the subsystems operating states; 2) allow conventional life-test data for estimating the exponential parameters. The methods are suited to numerical evaluation using electronic computers as shown by particular examples.