Probabilistic Studies of Generation Capacity (Part I)

A simplified model is constructed and analyzed to determine the power flow through channels of finite capacity when the supply and demand at the separate nodes are probabilistic. The supplies are generators of different sizes scattered throughout the system; their outages are treated as independent random events. Failure to meet demand is due to forced outages of generators and to inadequate transmission facilities. The model divides an interconnected power system into subsystems and tie lines. It calculates the cost of unsatisfied demand and sudden supply interruption. The difference between generation and demand in the different subsystems is correlated, and this has an effect on the interconnection and reserve requirements. A cost analysis is carried out to obtain the optimum allocation of generators in the model.