Risk-based asset replacement in EHV transmission networks

The developed method of risk-based asset replacement consists of the three major parts: availability & reliability calculations, asset risk determination with a Value at Risk (VaR) method and the multiple choice knapsack optimized replacement strategy developer. The transmission network availability & reliability calculations are carried out with multiple load flow scenarios which cover all typical load states during a year of the investigated transmission system. The developed VaR-method includes a Monte Carlo simulation to generate and concentrate an amount of input values to one key figure per asset. The individual outage rates and costs which depend on the time of failure occurrence are taken into account by the VaR determination. The multiple choice knapsack optimized risk-based replacement strategy developer determines the decision which activity is chosen for the individual asset and the reliability & availability of the overall transmission network and minimum investment costs as target figures. This two-dimensional optimum is found with the branch-and-bound algorithm of Sinha and Zolters. The three different opportunities are immediately replacement, refurbishment or inspection with a change to a corrective replacement. The transition from a standard to a risk-based replacement strategy allows a significant budget reduction while keeping transmission system reliability & availability. The assets providing an increased risk in the network due to their age-related behavior and location in the transmission network are determined and get a higher priority for exchange. Thus, the major assets are replaced more quickly and due to the corrective replacement strategy the costs are reduced for the less important assets.