Eliciting probabilities from experts in complex technical problems

Author

Keeney, Ralph L. ; Von Winterfeldt, Detlof

Author_Institution

Inst. of Safety Syst. Manage., Univ. of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA

Volume

38

Issue

3

fYear

1991

fDate

8/1/1991 12:00:00 AM

Firstpage

191

Lastpage

201

Abstract

A formal elicitation process is summarized to obtain probabilities from experts in a large-scale study involving nuclear safety. A first expert elicitation, using primarily in-house experts and staff members of the project team was strongly criticized in peer review. Subsequently, many changes in the process and procedures were made including training experts in making probability judgments, providing assistance in decomposing judgments, formally eliciting probabilities in individual sessions, and documenting the results. Approximately 1000 probability distributions were assessed from about 40 experts from universities, consulting firms, and national laboratories. This second elicitation was much better received by peer review. Based on this experience, a comprehensive process to elicit probability judgments is outlined in detail

Keywords

fission reactor safety; management; nuclear power stations; probability; training; distributions; experts; fusion reactors; management; nuclear power stations; nuclear safety; probability; project; training; Educational institutions; Fuels; Inductors; Laboratories; Large-scale systems; Power generation; Probability distribution; Radioactive pollution; Safety; US Department of Energy;

fLanguage

English

Journal_Title

Engineering Management, IEEE Transactions on

Publisher

ieee

ISSN

0018-9391

Type

jour

DOI

10.1109/17.83752

Filename

83752