• DocumentCode
    1333923
  • Title

    Weakly Universally Consistent Forecasting of Stationary and Ergodic Time Series

  • Author

    Jones, Daniel ; Kohler, Michael ; Walk, Harro

  • Author_Institution
    Dept. of Math., Tech. Univ. Darmstadt, Darmstadt, Germany
  • Volume
    58
  • Issue
    2
  • fYear
    2012
  • Firstpage
    1191
  • Lastpage
    1202
  • Abstract
    Static forecasting of stationary and ergodic time series is considered, i.e., inference of the conditional expectation of the response variable at time zero given the infinite past. It is shown that the mean squared error of a combination of suitably defined localized least squares estimates converges to zero for all distributions where the response variable is square integrable.
  • Keywords
    mean square error methods; statistical mechanics; time series; conditional expectation; ergodic time series; localized least square; mean squared error; response variable; static forecasting; stationary time series; weakly universally consistent forecasting; Forecasting; Kernel; Least squares approximation; Polynomials; Random variables; Splines (mathematics); Time series analysis; Dependent data; forecasting; mean squared error; time series; weak consistency;
  • fLanguage
    English
  • Journal_Title
    Information Theory, IEEE Transactions on
  • Publisher
    ieee
  • ISSN
    0018-9448
  • Type

    jour

  • DOI
    10.1109/TIT.2011.2169648
  • Filename
    6029336