Title :
Unobserved components models in economics and finance
Author :
Harvey, Andrew ; Koopman, Siem Jan
Author_Institution :
Cambridge Univ., Cambridge, UK
Abstract :
State-space methods permit a flexible treatment of unobserved components models. Furthermore, data irregularities such as missing observations are easily handled. For example, irregularly spaced observations can be dealt with since, as discussed in [3, Chap. 3], unobserved components models can be set up in continuous time, and the implied discrete-time state-space form derived. Current theoretical and empirical research in time series econometrics focuses on non-Gaussian and nonlinear models that follow functional forms suggested by economic and finance theory. For example, many central banks are developing dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models using state-space methods. These models are based on unobserved components, and estimation is by maximum likelihood or Bayesian methods.
Keywords :
Bayes methods; Kalman filters; econometrics; finance; maximum likelihood estimation; state-space methods; stochastic processes; time series; Bayesian methods; Kalman filter; data irregularities; discrete-time state-space methods; dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models; economic theory; finance theory; maximum likelihood methods; missing observations; non-Gaussian models; nonlinear models; time series econometrics; unobserved components models; Bayesian methods; Econometrics; Economic forecasting; Finance; Frequency; Monte Carlo methods; Power generation economics; Predictive models; State-space methods; Unemployment;
Journal_Title :
Control Systems, IEEE
DOI :
10.1109/MCS.2009.934465