Recursive calculation of probability distributions for sequential decision analysis models

Author

Kirkwood, Craig W.

Author_Institution

Dept. of Manage., Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ, USA

Volume

28

Issue

1

fYear

1998

fDate

2/1/1998 12:00:00 AM

Firstpage

104

Lastpage

111

Abstract

Presents a general-purpose procedure to compactly specify probability information and efficiently calculate probability distributions over the outcome evaluation measure for a sequential decision analysis model. Computer code to implement the calculation procedure is presented in the Pascal programming language. Empirical results are reviewed that show that this approach can quickly determine outcome probability distributions for large sequential decision analysis models using modest computing resources

Keywords

Pascal listings; decision theory; mathematics computing; probability; stochastic processes; Pascal program; compact specification; computing resources; decision trees; general-purpose procedure; outcome evaluation measure; probability distributions; recursive calculation; sequential decision analysis models; stochastic models; Computer languages; Costs; Decision trees; Distributed computing; Helium; Information analysis; Probability distribution; Software packages; Stochastic processes; Utility theory;

fLanguage

English

Journal_Title

Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, Part C: Applications and Reviews, IEEE Transactions on

Publisher

ieee

ISSN

1094-6977

Type

jour

DOI

10.1109/5326.661093

Filename

661093