Probabilistic quantification of potentially flexible residential demand

The balancing of power systems with high penetration of renewable energy is a serious challenge to be faced in the near future. One of the possible solutions, recently capturing a lot of attention, is demand response. Demand response can only be achieved by power consumers holding loads which allow them to modify their normal power consumption pattern, namely flexible consumers. However flexibility, despite being constantly mentioned, is usually not properly defined and even rarer quantified. This manuscript introduces a methodology to identify and quantify potentially flexible demand of residential consumers. The procedure is based on non-flexible consumer clustering and subsequent statistical analysis. Consequently, the power consumption pattern of a flexible consumer is compared to a 3D probability distribution created by the previously referred methodology. The results show a strong relationship between the amount of potential flexibility and the probability of providing it. Finally, it is concluded that residential flexibility is most likely to be offered during transitions between summer and winter.