Risk analysis of intelligent transportation system investments

Improvements to urban transportation in terms of user service, environmental effects and cost efficiency can be achieved through careful planning and application of intelligent transportation systems (ITS). Since public and/or public-private joint venture funds are used as investments in these systems and the results cannot be predicted with certainty, it is prudent to subject such investments to risk analysis. This study reports a methodological framework for the risk analysis of ITS applications in urban transportation with focus on public transit. The role of advanced technology in shaping public transit systems at the strategic, tactical and operational levels is acknowledged. Evaluation and capital budgeting methodological improvements, particularly risk analysis, are described for ITS capital investment socio-economic analysis. Bayesian and Monte Carlo simulation approaches are illustrated for assessing risk in ITS investments, including feasibility of additional information acquisition in order to enhance knowledge of uncertain factors.