Facts and fiction in spectral analysis

This analysis is limited to the spectral analysis of stationary stochastic processes with unknown spectral density. The main spectral estimation methods are: parametric with time series models, or nonparametric with a windowed periodogram. A single time series model will be chosen with a statistical criterion from three previously estimated and selected models: the best autoregressive (AR) model, the best moving average (MA) model, and the best combined ARMA model. The accuracy of the spectrum, computed from this single selected time series model, is compared with the accuracy of some windowed periodogram estimates. The time series model generally gives a spectrum that is better than the best possible windowed periodogram. It is a fact that a single good time series model can be selected automatically for statistical data with unknown spectral density. It is fiction that objective choices between windowed periodograms can be made