Dynamic modeling of present and future service demand

Author

Lyons, Michael H. ; Burton, Fraser ; Egan, Blaise ; Lynch, Tom ; Skelton, Sonia

Author_Institution

British Telecom Res. Labs., Ipswich, UK

Volume

85

Issue

10

fYear

1997

fDate

10/1/1997 12:00:00 AM

Firstpage

1544

Lastpage

1555

Abstract

The emphasis on “forecasting” demand for future services hides the fact that demand is not a predetermined element but something that is strongly influenced by societal and economic trends and the actions of market players. Any forecast makes implicit assumptions about the future. In a rapidly changing market, businesses need to supplement traditional forecasting models with dynamic models that explicitly include factors influencing changes in demand and enable managers to explore the impact on demand of different business options. This paper describes the use of systems dynamics modeling to provide insight into the factors influencing service growth

Keywords

commerce; forecasting theory; planning; socio-economic effects; telecommunication services; business; business planning; demand forecasting; dynamic modeling; dynamic models; economic trends; forecasting models; future service demand; marketing; network operators; present service demand; service growth; societal trends; supply and demand system; technology planning; telecommunication market; telecommunication services; Couplings; Decision making; Demand forecasting; Econometrics; Economic forecasting; Environmental economics; Investments; Predictive models; Technology forecasting; Technology planning;

fLanguage

English

Journal_Title

Proceedings of the IEEE

Publisher

ieee

ISSN

0018-9219

Type

jour

DOI

10.1109/5.640764

Filename

640764