Machine Condition Prediction Based on Adaptive Neuro–Fuzzy and High-Order Particle Filtering

Machine prognosis is a significant part of condition-based maintenance and intends to monitor and track the time evolution of a fault so that maintenance can be performed or the task can be terminated to avoid a catastrophic failure. A new prognostic method is developed in this paper using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFISs) and high-order particle filtering. The ANFIS is trained via machine historical failure data. The trained ANFIS and its modeling noise constitute an mth-order hidden Markov model to describe the fault propagation process. The high-order particle filter uses this Markov model to predict the time evolution of the fault indicator in the form of a probability density function. An online update scheme is developed to adapt the Markov model to various machine dynamics quickly. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated by using the testing data from a cracked carrier plate and a faulty bearing. Results show that it outperforms classical condition predictors.