Integrated stochastic weather and production simulation modeling

High penetration of intermittent renewable generators can substantially increase the variability and uncertainty in power system operations. Energy storage and demand response have been proposed as resources that can be used to mitigate this uncertainty and variability. This paper describes planning system that couples a stochastic weather model, renewable generation models that are driven by the weather, a stochastic production simulation model, and a system stability model. The system is used to simulate operation of the California grid with 33% variable renewable generation in the year 2020. The values of energy storage and demand response are estimated by identifying the avoided costs of the conventional hydro and fossil resources that they displace when providing regulation, load following, and energy arbitrage functions. The impacts on system stability are also assessed.