Optimal smoothing for trend removal in short term electricity demand forecasting

Author

Infield, D.G. ; Hill, D.C.

Author_Institution

Dept. of Electron. & Electr. Eng., Loughborough Univ., UK

Volume

13

Issue

3

fYear

1998

fDate

8/1/1998 12:00:00 AM

Firstpage

1115

Lastpage

1120

Abstract

Changes to the electricity supply industry, in particular the progress towards deregulation, have prompted an increased interest in short-term electricity demand forecasting. Trend removal has been identified as a key element in forecasting, and perhaps the area that can most benefit from the application of advanced time series analysis. A new approach to trend removal is presented based on fixed interval, or optimal, smoothing techiques. Forecasts derived in this way are compared with more conventional approaches. Preliminary results indicate the new method to be promising and deserving of further development

Keywords

electricity supply industry; load forecasting; optimisation; smoothing methods; time series; advanced time series analysis; deregulation; electricity supply industry; fixed interval smoothing techiques; optimal smoothing; short-term electricity demand forecasting; trend removal; Bridges; Demand forecasting; Electronics industry; Industrial electronics; Job shop scheduling; Load forecasting; Oceans; Predictive models; Smoothing methods; Time series analysis;

fLanguage

English

Journal_Title

Power Systems, IEEE Transactions on

Publisher

ieee

ISSN

0885-8950

Type

jour

DOI

10.1109/59.709108

Filename

709108