Uncertainty, prediction, and the unexpected

There is a common (and I think, accurate) perception that today´s high-technology markets contain an irreducible amount of uncertainty. It´s easy to explain part of this uncertainty. Few people are considered experts on many technologies. Thus, most high-tech watchers are frequently surprised, disappointed, and delighted by commercial developments in fields about which they know almost nothing. That said, more than just lack of expertise affects uncertainty. Uncertainty has comprised the industry zeitgeist for decades. Many young programmers living on Internet time may not believe that, but it´s no less true today than it was in the past. Only the sources of uncertainty change in each era-the presence of uncertainty does not. Previously observers associated disruption and instability with the introduction of, for example, notebook computers, PDAs, networked computers, laser printers, PCs, minicomputers, or a range of other technologies