DocumentCode :
1437590
Title :
Long-Term Prediction Intervals of Time Series
Author :
Zhou, Zhou ; Xu, Zhiwei ; Wu, Wei Biao
Author_Institution :
Dept. of Stat., Univ. of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
Volume :
56
Issue :
3
fYear :
2010
fDate :
3/1/2010 12:00:00 AM
Firstpage :
1436
Lastpage :
1446
Abstract :
We consider the problem of predicting aggregates or sums of future values of a process based on its past values. In contrast with the conventional prediction problem in which one predicts a future value given past values of the process, in our setting the number of aggregates can go to infinity with respect to the number of available observations. Consistency and Bahadur representations of the prediction estimators are established. A simulation study is carried out to assess the performance of different prediction estimators.
Keywords :
estimation theory; prediction theory; stochastic processes; time series; Bahadur representations; long-term prediction intervals; prediction estimators; quenched central limit theory; stochastic process; time series; Aggregates; Data engineering; Estimation theory; H infinity control; Information science; Predictive models; Statistics; Stochastic processes; Tail; Telecommunication computing; Empirical quantiles; heavy tails; long-memory; long-run prediction; quenched central limit theory;
fLanguage :
English
Journal_Title :
Information Theory, IEEE Transactions on
Publisher :
ieee
ISSN :
0018-9448
Type :
jour
DOI :
10.1109/TIT.2009.2039158
Filename :
5429100
Link To Document :
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