Title :
Long-Term Prediction Intervals of Time Series
Author :
Zhou, Zhou ; Xu, Zhiwei ; Wu, Wei Biao
Author_Institution :
Dept. of Stat., Univ. of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
fDate :
3/1/2010 12:00:00 AM
Abstract :
We consider the problem of predicting aggregates or sums of future values of a process based on its past values. In contrast with the conventional prediction problem in which one predicts a future value given past values of the process, in our setting the number of aggregates can go to infinity with respect to the number of available observations. Consistency and Bahadur representations of the prediction estimators are established. A simulation study is carried out to assess the performance of different prediction estimators.
Keywords :
estimation theory; prediction theory; stochastic processes; time series; Bahadur representations; long-term prediction intervals; prediction estimators; quenched central limit theory; stochastic process; time series; Aggregates; Data engineering; Estimation theory; H infinity control; Information science; Predictive models; Statistics; Stochastic processes; Tail; Telecommunication computing; Empirical quantiles; heavy tails; long-memory; long-run prediction; quenched central limit theory;
Journal_Title :
Information Theory, IEEE Transactions on
DOI :
10.1109/TIT.2009.2039158