Risk due to load forecast uncertainty in short term power system planning

Author

Douglas, Andrew P. ; Breipohl, A.M. ; Lee, Fred N. ; Adapa, Rambabu

Author_Institution

Sch. of Electr. & Comput. Eng., Oklahoma Univ., Norman, OK, USA

Volume

13

Issue

4

fYear

1998

fDate

11/1/1998 12:00:00 AM

Firstpage

1493

Lastpage

1499

Abstract

This paper presents a methodology to analyze the risk of short term power system operational planning in the presence of electrical load forecast uncertainty. As the authors´ methodology requires an estimate of the load forecast variance, a Bayesian load forecaster is used in the practical implementation. They express their results as a function of forecast lead time from one to five days into the future, in terms of $/MWH. The risk due to load forecast uncertainty is based on the forecast variance, and found by determining the expected cost of perfect information. They illustrate their risk evaluation method in a case study with utility-derived power system data and temperature forecast data from the US National Weather Service

Keywords

Bayes methods; load forecasting; power system planning; risk management; Bayesian load forecaster; USA; expected cost of perfect information; forecast lead time; forecast variance; load forecast uncertainty risk; risk analysis methodology; short term power system planning; Bayesian methods; Costs; Load forecasting; Power system analysis computing; Power system planning; Power systems; Risk analysis; Temperature; Uncertainty; Weather forecasting;

fLanguage

English

Journal_Title

Power Systems, IEEE Transactions on

Publisher

ieee

ISSN

0885-8950

Type

jour

DOI

10.1109/59.736296

Filename

736296