DocumentCode
1453987
Title
The impacts of temperature forecast uncertainty on Bayesian load forecasting
Author
Douglas, Andrew P. ; Breipohl, Arthur M. ; Lee, Fred N. ; Adapa, Rambabu
Author_Institution
Sch. of Electr. Eng. & Comput. Sci., Oklahoma Univ., Norman, OK, USA
Volume
13
Issue
4
fYear
1998
fDate
11/1/1998 12:00:00 AM
Firstpage
1507
Lastpage
1513
Abstract
This paper presents a short-term load forecast methodology that is suitable for power system operational planning studies. Bayesian estimation is use to predict multiple step ahead peak forecasts using peak and average temperature forecasts as explanatory variables. Herein, the forecast model is developed and illustrated in a case study with utility-derived power system data. Special attention is given to the practical issue of forecasting the electrical load with imperfect weather information
Keywords
Bayes methods; load forecasting; power system planning; Bayesian estimation; case study; imperfect weather information; multiple step ahead peak forecasts; power system operational planning; short-term load forecast methodology; temperature forecast uncertainty; Bayesian methods; Economic forecasting; Load forecasting; Power system modeling; Power system planning; Predictive models; Process planning; Temperature; Uncertainty; Weather forecasting;
fLanguage
English
Journal_Title
Power Systems, IEEE Transactions on
Publisher
ieee
ISSN
0885-8950
Type
jour
DOI
10.1109/59.736298
Filename
736298
Link To Document