Reliability Assessment of Time-Dependent Systems via Sequential Cross-Entropy Monte Carlo Simulation

This paper proposes a new methodology to evaluate system generating capacity reliability indices considering time-dependent power sources and loads. Based on sequential Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and the cross-entropy (CE) method, the basic idea is to find an optimal distortion for the equipment transition rates using the CE concepts. A chronological simulation is then carried out using these newly found optimal reference parameters. This process suitably modifies the chronological evolution of the system in order to improve its statistical efficiency and convergence properties. As a result, the computational efforts of the sequential simulation can be greatly reduced while retaining many of its main advantages. Comparisons with the chronological, pseudo-chronological, and quasi-sequential MCS are carried out using the IEEE-RTS-96 (Reliability Test System) and modifications of this system that include renewable sources.