Title :
Incorporating Wind Power in Generating Capacity Reliability Evaluation Using Different Models
Author :
Billinton, Roy ; Huang, Dange
Author_Institution :
Dept. of Electr. & Comput. Eng., Univ. of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK, Canada
Abstract :
Appropriate wind speed modeling is an important requirement in the reliability evaluation of wind integrated electric power systems. This paper examines and illustrates the effects on the generating capacity adequacy indices of a small test system of using different wind speed modeling procedures in Monte Carlo simulation and analytical reliability assessment. Wind speed data for a number of different time periods at two quite diverse locations in Canada are used in the studies. Wind speed is represented using hourly observed data, hourly mean wind speed data, autoregressive moving average (ARMA) time series, moving average (MA) time series, Normal distribution, and Markov chain models.
Keywords :
Markov processes; Monte Carlo methods; autoregressive moving average processes; power generation reliability; time series; wind power plants; ARMA time series; Markov chain models; Monte Carlo simulation; analytical reliability assessment; autoregressive moving average time series; generating capacity reliability evaluation; normal distribution; wind integrated electric power systems; wind power; wind speed data; wind speed modeling; Autoregressive processes; Monte Carlo methods; Power system reliability; Time series analysis; Wind power generation; Wind speed; Analytical techniques; generating capacity reliability evaluation; simulation; time series analysis; wind speed models;
Journal_Title :
Power Systems, IEEE Transactions on
DOI :
10.1109/TPWRS.2011.2120633
