Risk-Based Assessment of Financial Losses Due to Voltage Sag

Author

Chan, Jhan Yhee ; Milanovic, Jovica V. ; Delahunty, Alice

Author_Institution

Sch. of Electr. & Electron. Eng., Univ. of Manchester, Manchester, UK

Volume

26

Issue

2

fYear

2011

fDate

4/1/2011 12:00:00 AM

Firstpage

492

Lastpage

500

Abstract

This paper investigates the factors that influence the outcome of financial-loss analysis in voltage sag studies. Focusing on industrial processes, this paper considers the effects of voltage sag profile estimation, plant-load profile modelling, and process cycle modelling on the financial risk associated with process failure. Based on voltage sag monitoring records, sag profile is probabilistically modeled for the estimation of future sag characteristic. Variations in financial risk due to varying process activities in different stages of a process (process cycle) and load profile are also investigated. The effects of the individual factors are analyzed through Monte Carlo simulation. The stochastic net present value method is introduced as a financial analysis tool.

Keywords

Monte Carlo methods; financial management; power supply quality; probability; risk management; stochastic processes; Monte Carlo simulation; financial loss analysis; financial risk; industrial processes; plant-load profile modelling; process cycle modelling; process failure; risk-based assessment; stochastic net present value method; voltage sag monitoring records; voltage sag profile estimation; Industrial plants; Load modeling; Monitoring; Power quality; Probabilistic logic; Sensitivity; Voltage fluctuations; Financial losses; net present value (NPV); probability; risk analysis; stochastic; voltage sag;

fLanguage

English

Journal_Title

Power Delivery, IEEE Transactions on

Publisher

ieee

ISSN

0885-8977

Type

jour

DOI

10.1109/TPWRD.2009.2037426

Filename

5738431