Estimating the posterior probability of LTP failure by sequential Bayesian analysis of an imperfect Bernoulli trial model

A tetanically stimulated (TS) neuron is said to have failed to fire if its voltage-clamped excitatory postsynaptic current (EPSC) measurement is devoid of a long-term potentiation (LTP) response. This paper provides a method for evaluating the posterior probability of "failure" for TS neurons. A sequential Bayes algorithm is employed on an imperfect Bernoulli trial model to refine the posterior with each EPSC data record processed. The method is applied to both real and simulated LTP data and is shown to be consistent with the theoretical Beta-distributed posterior and the reported in vitro voltage-damped EPSC failure rates.