Prediction of tropospheric scintillation on satellite links from radiosonde data

On the basis of radiosonde data, a new method is proposed for predicting tropospheric scintillation effects on slant paths. It stems from a rigorous statistical development and consists of two steps. First, statistical features of tropospheric turbulence responsible for scintillation are extracted from the analysis of a large amount of radiosonde ascents. Second, long-term scintillation statistics are inferred from these turbulence characteristics, using the theory of propagation through a turbulent medium. The method is applied to a complete year of radiosonde data measured in Belgium and the predicted scintillation results are compared with measurements carried out on the same year near to the meteorological station. An agreement better than with any other usual prediction method is found. The method yields very accurate predictions of scintillation annual statistics and also adequately represents the seasonal and monthly variability of scintillation. Unlike the current prediction models, the proposed radiosonde-based method does not rest on empirical relationships derived from particular propagation experiments and could, therefore, be applied more widely