Technological forecasting — Practical problems and pitfalls

Technological forecasting is becoming a widespread activity in business and the military. The actual accomplishment of the forecasting task is increasing in methodological sophistication. This article presents many practical problems and pitfalls encountered in planning and preparing technological forecasts. The authors examine the factors to be considered in the initial stages of implementing forecasts, the validity of previous forecasts, summarize recent advances, point out new hazards, evaluate the forecasting technique, and include some realistic suggestions for improved technological forecasts.