Forecasting commercial change

Why is so little in the commercial world as dependable as Moore´s law! Doesn´t that seem odd! Why is it that a savvy engineer can forecast the rate of technical change, but it is impossible to find a market analyst who can correctly (and reliably) forecast anything about market events! Three very important facts shape this pervasive uncertainty. They are well known, though they are so obvious that nobody thinks to comment on them any longer. Information technology comprises a stunning variety of distinct technologies-much more than just the microprocessor. These technologies define the technical frontier: they include hardware, software, networking and communications, digital and analog systems, operating systems, operations software, tools and applications, communications software, central switches and PBXs, mainframes and microcomputers, storage devices, input devices, routers and modems, TCP/IP-based technologies, proprietary and other open standards, among others. In addition, a very wide variety of technical specialties, kinds of IT firms, and modes of invention help to advance these technologies. This variety means that simply characterizing the rate and direction of technical progress in IT is not a trivial activity. Rates and directions differ across products and components