Effects of abnormal operating conditions on electrical utility planning

Many forecasters have examined normal electricity consumption on long and short time scales, on both a national and an individual basis. This analysis is adequate for normal operating conditions but does not contain any information on the response to an uncertain supply or the effects of energy source depletion. The authors expand the information available by examining the usage of electricity by domestic consumers under uncertain supply conditions. From these usage patterns, disconnection strategies that optimise energy output and service to customers are proposed. The loss of an alternative energy source (town gas) is also examined, and predictions of future demand changes are made