ESA SEPEM Project: Peak Flux and Fluence Model

A new modeling methodology for the prediction of the solar proton environment a 1 AU developed as part of the Solar Energetic Particle Environment (SEPEM) Project for the European Space Agency (ESA) is presented. This new method named Virtual Timelines is applied to the SEPEM Reference Event List derived from a long flux time series of space-based measurements to produce the SEPEM model for proton peak flux and fluence at 1 AU. There are several new components including the use of the Lévy distribution for time distributions and the accounting for the non-point-like nature of SEP events.