Probabilistic calculations of aggregate storage heating loads

An aggregate storage heating load model which takes into account the probabilistic nature of the external temperature forecasts and the cycling effects of the reduced rate period determined by the utility is developed. Probabilistic short- and medium-term predictions of the distribution substation loadings and power flows at any time during the 24 h heating cycle can be obtained using this model. In addition, the model can be used to assess the effects of direct load control over a group of storage heating units. A computer program is developed using the model; applying the program to the analysis provides a wealth of information valuable in operational planning and in assessing various load management strategies