Limits of model-based prediction of socioeconomic system behavior

The use of mathematical and computer-implemented models for study of socioeconomic system dynamics has become increasingly popular in recent years. In their enthusiasm for these methods, many investigators have ignored, or seriously underestimated, certain intricate technical problems which place stringent limitations on the validity of model-based predictions. This article is intended to provide a brief discussion of these matters. For clarity it is perhaps best to begin with a few simple definitions.