Jitter-based delay-boundary prediction of wide-area networks

The delay-boundary prediction algorithms currently implemented by transport protocols are lowpass filters based on autoregressive and moving average (ARMA) models. However, previous studies have revealed a fractal-like structure of delay sequences, which may not be well suited to ARMA models. We propose a novel delay-boundary prediction algorithm based on a deviation-lag function (DLF) to characterize the end-to-end delay variations. Compared to conventional algorithms derived from ARMA models, the new algorithm can adapt to delay variations more rapidly and share the delay´s robust high-order statistical information (jitter deviation) among competing connections along a common network path. Preliminary experiments show that it outperforms Jacobson´s (1988) algorithm, which is based on an ARMA model, by significantly reducing the prediction error rate. To show the practical feasibility of the DLF algorithm, we also propose a skeleton implementation model