Title :
Design a Wind Speed Prediction Model Using Probabilistic Fuzzy System
Author :
Zhang, Geng ; Li, Han-Xiong ; Gan, Min
Author_Institution :
State Key Lab. of High Performance Complex Manuf., Central South Univ., Changsha, China
Abstract :
Generation of wind is a very complicated process and influenced by large numbers of unknown factors. A probabilistic fuzzy system based prediction model is designed for the short-term wind speed prediction. By introducing the third probability dimension, the proposed prediction model can capture both stochastic and the deterministic uncertainties, and guarantee a better prediction in complex stochastic environment. The effectiveness of this intelligent wind speed prediction model is demonstrated by the simulations on a group of wind speed data. The robust modeling performance further discloses its potential in the practical prediction of wind speed under complex circumstance.
Keywords :
fuzzy set theory; power engineering computing; probability; stochastic processes; uncertainty handling; wind power; deterministic uncertainties; intelligent wind speed prediction model; probabilistic fuzzy system; probability dimension; robust modeling performance; stochastic uncertainties; wind generation; wind speed prediction model design; Data models; Fuzzy systems; Predictive models; Probabilistic logic; Stochastic processes; Uncertainty; Wind speed; Probabilistic fuzzy inference; probabilistic fuzzy logic system; probabilistic fuzzy set; probabilistic modeling; wind speed prediction;
Journal_Title :
Industrial Informatics, IEEE Transactions on
DOI :
10.1109/TII.2012.2205392