Estimating future demand a top down/bottom up approach for forecasting annual growths

The accurate estimation of future demand growth in power systems has important technical, economic, and regulatory repercussions. For example, future demand is a key input for regulators before approving future capital expenditures. Similarly, accurate estimation of future demand is extremely valuable when validating configuration of the electricity sector prior to ring-fencing and/or privatization. This paper proposes a top-down/bottom-up approach for accurately estimating future demand growth in a restructured environment. The results of the recent application of this approach in a developing country in South America are also presented.