Dynamic analysis of the regional cultivated land and grain system: The case study on Zhangjiagang city of Jiangsu province

Cultivated land resources are the basic material conditions in agricultural production. Its changes are also the important part of LUCC (Land Use and Land Cover Change). It relates to grain security, human survival and development. And it is also the core area of the study of sustainable land use. In this paper, Zhangjiagang city is selected as the study area. Dynamic analysis was carried out to the regional changes of cultivated land area, population, grain yield and the pressure on cultivated land based on 3S technology. The results showed that, average annual growth rate of cultivated land was −1.25% during 2000 to 2007, cultivated land area per capita was 0.0384hm² and pressure index of cultivated land was greater than 1 in 2009. Through estimating the area and yield of wheat and rice, it was showed that the accuracy were 90% and 85%, the area of grain had the decreasing trend, and total grain output had the instable trend during 2002 to 2008.