A greenfield approach to the future supply of multiple energy carriers

In this paper a model for the design of future multi-energy systems including electricity is presented. In this context a greenfield approach is applied, i.e. in a first step efficient portfolios for the supply of multiple energy carriers (e.g. electrical energy, heat, and chemical energy carriers) are calculated for a certain target year. In a second step, an optimal transition path from a portfolio given today to the desired optimal portfolio in the future is determined. The method presented in this paper is based on a single-period mean-variance portfolio model, which is adapted to be used for portfolios providing multiple energy carriers. Optimal transition paths are calculated applying a dynamic programming method that maximizes utility along the transition path. The proposed method is illustrated applying it to a combined heat and power portfolio consisting of a set of small-scale generation technologies.