A prioritization method of adjusting parameters for making consensus on combination of risk-reducing plans by mutual effect analysis

This paper addresses the prioritization problem of parameters for making consensus on the combination of risk-reducing plans. The existing method supports reducing times of adjustments by prioritizing parameters in descending order of the gaps in “preferences” of parameters among experts. However, the existing method can not prioritize the parameters correctly when the disagreement is caused by the mutual effect among risk-reducing plans. So, we propose a prioritization method of adjusting parameters by mutual effect analysis. The proposed method defines the rate of the preference as the magnitude of the mutual effect when a value of a parameter of risk-reducing plan is changed. The magnitude of the mutual effect is defined as “independent score” and whether the mutual effect works or not is decided. The risk-reducing plan which has no mutual effect is prioritized based on the existing method. On the other hand, the risk-reducing plan which has strong mutual effect is prioritized in descending order of the magnitude of the mutual effect. As a result of evaluation experiments, the proposed method can improve averages of the recall rate by 30% and the precision rate by 28% compared to the existing method.