Model of Assessment of the Emergency Danger on the Railways

The results of analysis of the influence of weather conditions on the frequency of accidents on the railway. The factors that significantly increase the risk of accidents were identified on basis of the daily statistics of weather conditions. The model which allows to combine a set of weather factors in a single indicator of the emergency danger with accounting of degree of their influence on the frequency of accidents is presented. The correlation coefficients obtained on the basis of statistics of accidents on the Latvian and Canadian railways were used as the weight coefficients in the construction of the integral index Built index of the emergency danger is used for building the scale to measure the risk of accident appearance on the railway according to three-level system. The meteorological situation can be assessed as favorable, normal or dangerous in accordance with the proposed model. Using of this system of scaling allows to design a system of early warning of railway staff about the necessity for additional security measures in the case of unfavorable or dangerous weather conditions.