Study on the Reliability of Travel Time in Transportation Network

Under the influence of traffic accident and imbalance between the daily traffic supply and demand, the transportation network of city is in instability condition. The random variation of traffic flow and capacity leads to the randomness of traffic in the transportation network. This paper focus on the travel time, according to the typical characteristics about traffic flow and Green shields speed-density model deduces the dynamic travel time estimation model, obtains the random variables travel time´s probability density function with the Edge worth series and then proposes the reliability model about traffic network travel time. In the end a simple numerical example was given to proved the effectiveness of the model, the model was solved by using the Monte Carlo simulation method.