Title :
Artificial stock market for testing price prediction models
Author_Institution :
Inst. of Inf. Technol., NUST, Rawalpindi, Pakistan
Abstract :
Extensive research in multi-agent simulation of financial markets has been carried out to study various market models. Professionals extensively analyze financial markets in order to make profitable trading strategies, resulting from the price prediction models. We hypothesize that artificial markets can effectively be used to provide a real-time testing environment for the price prediction models. Much attention has not been paid to changing market conditions during the simulation. Here we develop an environment that effectively imitates the real world, by making artificial market dynamically configurable during the simulation. Flexibility is provided to change market composition and agent behavior during the run. It thus provides an artificial testing environment for profitability measurement of numerous prediction models that are being developed continuously around the globe. We also extend standard interfaces in order to embed a prediction model in an artificial trader. This market shall extend the usability and effectiveness of agent based simulation environments to new levels.
Keywords :
econometrics; evolutionary computation; forecasting theory; multi-agent systems; pricing; profitability; stock markets; agent-based computing; agent-based simulation; artificial stock market; artificial testing environment; artificial trader; evolutionary computation; financial markets; multi-agent simulation; price prediction models; profitability; profitable trading; Analytical models; Computational modeling; Computer simulation; Evolutionary computation; Mathematical model; Predictive models; Profitability; Stock markets; Testing; Usability;
Conference_Titel :
Intelligent Systems, 2004. Proceedings. 2004 2nd International IEEE Conference
Print_ISBN :
0-7803-8278-1
DOI :
10.1109/IS.2004.1344856