Fatigue life prediction of rear axle using time series model

The rear axle is one of the key parts of the automobile, lots failure of rear axle resulted from fatigue failure of the spiral bevel gears. A new method is proposed to solve the problem of accurately predicting the fatigue life of spiral bevel gears in rear axle. The method uses the recurrence tracing and difference method to improve the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model prediction accuracy, which uses variables determined from on-line measurements to characterize the state of the deterioration rear axle. The experimental results show the proposed method has relatively high prediction accuracy.