Title :
Verification of a very short term wind power forecasting algorithm for Turkish transmission grid
Author :
Buhan, Serkan ; Terciyanli, Erman ; Ozkan, Mehmet Baris ; Kucuk, Dilek ; Haliloglu, Ali Burhan ; Demirci, Turan ; Tuna, Hakan ; Unsal, Hakan
Author_Institution :
TUBITAK MAM Energy Inst., Ankara, Turkey
Abstract :
The importance of the very short term wind power forecasting has increased in the last years because of the large-scale integration of the wind power plants in the electricity grid. In addition to the other functionalities of the Wind Power Monitoring and Forecast Center (RİTM) of Turkey, a very short term wind power forecasting module has been implemented and verified for 14 wind power plants (WPPs) in real time. Wind power monitoring system of RİTM has been used as data provider to the forecasting module and results are presented to the clients via graphical user interfaces. The results show that autoregressive model (AR) and autoregressive with exogenous variable model (ARX) beat persistence model after 20 minutes for all the forecasted horizon between 0-6 hours.
Keywords :
autoregressive processes; graphical user interfaces; load forecasting; power grids; power system measurement; transmission networks; wind power plants; AR model; ARX; RITM; Turkey; Turkish transmission grid; WPP; autoregressive model; autoregressive with exogenous variable model; beat persistence model; data provider; electricity grid; graphical user interface; time 0 hour to 6 hour; time 20 min; very short term wind power plant forecasting algorithm; wind power monitoring and forecast center; wind power monitoring system; Autoregressive processes; Forecasting; Monitoring; Predictive models; Real-time systems; Wind forecasting; Wind power generation;
Conference_Titel :
Power Engineering, Energy and Electrical Drives (POWERENG), 2013 Fourth International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Istanbul
DOI :
10.1109/PowerEng.2013.6635786
