Verification of a very short term wind power forecasting algorithm for Turkish transmission grid

The importance of the very short term wind power forecasting has increased in the last years because of the large-scale integration of the wind power plants in the electricity grid. In addition to the other functionalities of the Wind Power Monitoring and Forecast Center (RİTM) of Turkey, a very short term wind power forecasting module has been implemented and verified for 14 wind power plants (WPPs) in real time. Wind power monitoring system of RİTM has been used as data provider to the forecasting module and results are presented to the clients via graphical user interfaces. The results show that autoregressive model (AR) and autoregressive with exogenous variable model (ARX) beat persistence model after 20 minutes for all the forecasted horizon between 0-6 hours.