Point estimate-based solution for probabilistic equilibrium models in electricity markets

This paper proposes the analysis of probabilistic equilibrium models of electricity markets by means of point estimated methods. We follow a model to address generation companies´ strategic analysis based on a conjectured price-response market equilibrium representation. Furthermore, we consider uncertainty in power system demands. The resulting probabilistic equilibrium problem is then solved using a pointestimate method. This method constitutes an efficient tool to address probabilistic power system problems because good results can be achieved by using the same routines as those corresponding to deterministic problems, while keeping low computational burdens. Results based on the IEEE 30-bus Test System are presented and compared against those obtained from the Monte Carlo simulation.