How external factors influence stock market: A model based SVM

Nowadays with the rapid development of the stock market which attracts more and more people to invest in, there are growing public concerns about the stock market. Therefore, as two of the key factors that exert great influence on the stock market, i.e., the Liquidity and Inflation Expectation draw more people´s attentions. Based on the data of the Shanghai Composite Index (INDEX for short), narrow money (M1), broad money (M2), CPI and PPI of the same period, this paper explores a new model about Inflation Expectation, liquidity and the stock market through SVM. To obtain a better model to predict INDEX, we add external factors, such as liquidity factor, into classic regression model. The experiment results reveal the existence of the quantitative relationship between the stock markets and extern factors, such as M1, M2, CPI, PPI etc.