Estimating the extent of cascading transmission line outages using standard utility data and a branching process

Author

Dobson, Ian

Author_Institution

Electr. & Comput. Eng. Dept., Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI, USA

fYear

2011

Firstpage

1

Lastpage

3

Abstract

The number of transmission line outaged is one measure of the extent of a cascading disturbance. An initial number of lines outaged can lead to a cascading propagation of further outages. We estimate the amount by which line outages propagate from standard utility data that is reported annually to NERC by transmission owners for the Transmission Availability Data System. Given an assumption about the initial lines outages, we estimate the distribution of the total number of outages after cascading from the amount of propagation and a probabilistic branching process model of the cascading.

Keywords

estimation theory; power transmission lines; power transmission reliability; probability; NERC; cascading disturbance; cascading outage propagation; cascading transmission line outage; line outage propagation; probabilistic branching process model; standard utility data; transmission availability data system; Accuracy; Data models; Power system faults; Power system protection; Power transmission lines; Probability distribution; Transmission line measurements; failure analysis; power system monitoring; power transmission reliability; risk analysis;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Power and Energy Society General Meeting, 2011 IEEE

Conference_Location

San Diego, CA

ISSN

1944-9925

Print_ISBN

978-1-4577-1000-1

Electronic_ISBN

1944-9925

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/PES.2011.6039461

Filename

6039461