DocumentCode :
1636165
Title :
Shuffle design to improve time series forecasting accuracy
Author :
Peralta, Juan ; Gutierrez, German ; Sanchis, Araceli
Author_Institution :
Comput. Sci. Dept., Univ. Carlos III of Madrid, Leganes
fYear :
2009
Firstpage :
741
Lastpage :
748
Abstract :
In this work new improvements from a previous approach of an automatic design of artificial neural networks applied to forecast time series is tackled. The automatic process to design artificial neural networks is carried out by a genetic algorithm. These improvements, in order to get an accurate forecasting, are related with: to shuffle train and test patterns obtained from time series values and improving the fitness function during the global learning process (i.e. genetic algorithm) using a new patterns set called validation apart of the two used till the moment (i.e. train and test). The object of this study is to try to improve the final forecasting getting an accurate system. Results of the artificial neural networks got by our system to forecast a set of famous time series are shown.
Keywords :
forecasting theory; genetic algorithms; neural nets; time series; artificial neural networks; automatic design; genetic algorithm; shuffle design; time series forecasting accuracy; Algorithm design and analysis; Artificial neural networks; Computational modeling; Computer science; Genetic algorithms; Neurons; Predictive models; Process design; Statistical analysis; Testing;
fLanguage :
English
Publisher :
ieee
Conference_Titel :
Evolutionary Computation, 2009. CEC '09. IEEE Congress on
Conference_Location :
Trondheim
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4244-2958-5
Electronic_ISBN :
978-1-4244-2959-2
Type :
conf
DOI :
10.1109/CEC.2009.4983019
Filename :
4983019
Link To Document :
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