Prediction model of China´s population

Population system is a very complicated system, and population increasing is one of important factors to the variety of population. We predict increase rate of China´s population through establishing model of birth and death rate. The two direct factors of affecting birth rate are fertility and proportion of childbearing age women. Process of urbanization, sex ratio and aging impact on the birth rate and death rate. Using method of regression, difference equation and recurrence, we establish models of the relationship between them, predicte population of 40 years later, and obtain that China´s population will be low increase rate in 20 years later. The model has more effective fitting and more precise prediction, and proposes a new way to the research of Chinese population.